ABSTRACT
With the outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19), urban traffic control is an important measure to block the spread and control the development of the epidemic. In this study, to elucidate the blocking effects of different traffic control measures on the transmission of COVID-19 within city territories, the four administrative cities of Jingzhou, Xiaogan, Jingmen, and Shijiazhuang were selected as the study areas. The situation of the epidemic before and after the implementation of three typical traffic control measures-road closure, passenger traffic stoppage, and community population flow control-was analyzed. Based on the classical dynamics theory of infectious diseases, an optimized epidemic transmission susceptible, infectious, removed, exposed (SEIR) model was established, considering the infectivity of the exposed, population migration, and population flow in urban communities. Thereafter, the model was used to study the blocking effects based on whether traffic control measures were implemented in each city and the various traffic control measures on the development of the epidemic. The results indicate that the daily incidence rate of each city is related to the immigration index of approximately 14 days ago;the traffic control measures adopted by each city are also highly effective in blocking the spread of the epidemic. Compared with no traffic control measures, the peak numbers of infected persons in Jingzhou, Xiaogan, Jingmen, and Shijiazhuang decreased by 61.29%, 53.71%, 66.16%, and 66.33%, respectively. The blocking effects of the three control measures exhibit a few differences. The blocking effect of road closure measures is the most prominent;the numbers of latent and infected persons can be reduced by 40.54%-70.88% and 49.11%-64.34%, respectively, using different implementation nodes. Furthermore, a timely and comprehensive implementation of the three traffic control measures can effectively block the spread of the epidemic and control the development of the epidemic in cities. This improved SEIR model, which considers the characteristics of the incubation period, can accurately predict the development trends of the epidemic, thus serving as a technical reference for the formulation of urban traffic control plans over the duration of the epidemic. © 2022, Editorial Department of China Journal of Highway and Transport. All right reserved.